Macroeconomics
Immigration reduces inflation in US – IMF paper
But immigrants put upward pressure on house prices, study finds
Stiglitz offers alternatives to standard theories of economic fluctuations
Nobel prize winner argues that endogenously driven variations are key to understanding economies
BIS highlights market ‘uneasiness’ over bond issuance
Claudio Borio says fiscal outlook worldwide is “acutely worrying”
Phillips curve is convex in short term – NBER paper
Data on US and UK shows firms respond more to positive than negative demand shocks
Italian lenders do not under-report default risks – central bank
Commercial lenders’ internal rating-based systems “less conservative” than central bank’s
OECD highlights ‘resilient’ economies beset by risks
Geopolitics, high public debt and possible repricing in private credit markets threaten outlook
South European states benefited most from NGEU – ECB
Recovery and resilience facility’s structural reforms expected to pay off in the long run
NBER paper offers ‘unified theory’ of liquidity traps
Researchers ask whether major economies are doomed to return to zero lower bound
No systemic link between dollar and oil price yet – ECB paper
Increasing value of crude no longer weakens greenback, but does not “significantly” lift currency
Governors weigh macroeconomic risks at G30 event
Officials from Netherlands, South Africa, BIS and more consider debt, inflation and climate change
Differences in eurozone states ‘support disinflation narrative’
BdF deputy governor confident inflation will keep falling based on wage developments
‘Pooling’ models generates better output gap estimates – paper
Economists say measuring gap in real time is particularly challenging in developing countries
Trade credit can expose firms to FX risk – BIS paper
Currency borrowers partially insulate their partners from shocks, but still pass them along supply chains
Hélène Rey on cracking the code to the global financial cycle
The dollar and financial cycle move together. For the first time, economists think they know why
Close ‘huge’ gender gap to boost GDP – North Macedonia governor
Head of central bank says supporting female entrepreneurs could add $5trn-6trn to global economy
Shared EU debt not ‘essential’ for competitiveness boost – Draghi
Former ECB chief also says his proposal for €750bn of extra annual investment is “conservative”
NBER paper reviews ‘state of the art’ climate modelling
Recent breakthroughs have increased accuracy and computational efficiency of IAMs
Central banks should examine demographics – Finnish governor
Rehn says sharp decrease in hours worked and increased immigration may not continue
Households biased in views of purchasing power – BdF deputy
Bénassy-Quéré says too much emphasis placed on food and energy prices’ effects on inflation
China poses ‘risk of economic coercion’ – Belgian paper
National Bank of Belgium says trade with EU has shifted to more “strategic” goods
Draghi report calls for step change in EU investment
Former ECB chief says bloc should revive securitisation and finish capital markets union to stay competitive